Pharmaceutical Company Revenues
worth $60 Billion under Threat from Generic Drugs
28 September 2005
Up to $60 billion of major branded drugs sales
are at risk from new generics competition between now and 2009 fueling
growth of specialist generic pharmaceutical companies, says a report.
The impact of these expiries is not equally spread
amongst big pharmacos. "There is a considerable difference
between the top 20 pharmaceutical companies in both the number of
products and the amount of revenues under threat from the potential
introduction of generics", said Dr Peter Norman, the report's
author. "Eli Lilly, Schering Plough Bayer, Amgen and Schering
AG have little or no threat under current legislation, while GlaxoSmithKline,
Pfizer and Roche are most exposed to generic threats in the period
2005 to 2009," he added.
The beneficiaries of this growth are likely to
be the major generics companies, in particular Sandoz and Teva.
The leading generics companies are likely to remain those based
in Europe, especially Germany, plus those in Israel and India. The
near term may also see the emergence of new players from the Far
East, especially China and Korea, taking advantage of low cost bases
and scientific capabilities.
In 2004 global sales of generic
products were reported to be $58 billion accounting for 14%
of the global healthcare market. The five year period to 2009 could
see $15-$20 billion of additional revenues generated by the generics
companies, significantly enhancing their growth prospects.
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